Assessment of Future Climate and Kharif Paddy Yields using Ceres-Rice in the State of Andhra Pradesh

Climate change considerably impacts water needs for agricultural production, particularly in paddy crops (Oryza Sativa). The crop response is uncertain and also heterogeneous due to climate change. variables rainfall temperature directly impact productivity. A precise understanding of yields required production management plan sustainable food demand the future at state level. scenario's on rice yield 0.25° × spatial resolution was assessed Andhra Pradesh presented this paper. use representative concentration Pathway 8.5 scenario projections made by Global Model (GCM) were downscaled mid-century (2048-2078) using statistical tools. In study, Cropping System (CSM) Crop Estimation through Resource Environment Synthesis (CERES) modules rice, as part Decision Support Agro-technology Transfer (DSSAT) package, utilized. Regional Yield (RCYES) within facilitated Python study. It observed that will decrease during winter pre-monsoon seasons related baseline period (1988–2018) RCP 8.5. From July October, there a significant increase rainfall. most considerable rain 50.7 mm September. notable variation between maximum minimum temperatures 2.3 2.5 degrees Celsius June April respectively. Rainfall expected Anantapur, Kurnool Nellore districts 2040's. correlation DES mean 0.87, with 0.86 0.82. Decrease up 10.7% West Godavari, Krishna, Guntur, Prakasam districts. At same time, an 9.8% anticipated Srikakulam, Visakhapatnam, Vizianagaram, East Chittoor, Kadapa, Kurnool. contrast, 189.9 Vizianagaram district. These results could assist devising adaptation measures reduce negative effect Pradesh.